Monthly House Price Index statistics for January 2018 published

Average price of property in Scotland up 7.3 per cent on previous year.

The latest publication of the monthly UK House Price Index (UK HPI) shows that the average price of a property in Scotland in January 2018 was £148,512 – an increase of 7.3 per cent on January in the previous year and an increase of 1.4 per cent when compared to the previous month. This compares to a UK average of £225,621, which was an increase of 4.9 per cent on January in the previous year and a decrease of 0.3 per cent when compared to the previous month.

The volume of residential sales in Scotland in November 2017 was 8,572 – a decrease of 1.9 per cent on November 2016 and a decrease of 4.1 per cent on the previous month. This compares with annual decreases in sales volumes of 13.0 per cent in England and 5.2 per cent in Wales in November 2017, and 8.8 per cent in Northern Ireland Quarter 4 - 2017.

Registers of Scotland Operations Director and Accountable Officer Janet Egdell said: “Average prices in Scotland continued their upward trend in January with an increase of 7.3 per cent when compared to January 2017. Average prices have been steadily increasing each month since March 2016, when compared with the same month of the previous year.

“Residential sales volumes decreased in November. The annual decrease of 1.9 per cent when compared with November 2016 in Scotland is in the context of larger decreases across the rest of the UK. The cumulative volume of sales for Scotland for the financial year to date – from April to November 2017 – was 72,842. This is an increase of 7.9 per cent on the equivalent year to date position for November 2016.”

Average price increases were recorded in the vast majority (28) of local authorities in January 2018, when comparing prices with the previous year. The biggest price increases were in East Lothian and West Lothian, where average prices increased by 13.9 per cent to £219,393 and 13.3 per cent to £156,149 respectively. The biggest decrease was recorded in Stirling where prices fell by 0.6 per cent to £174,982.

Increases in sales volumes were recorded in less than half (13) of local authorities in November 2017, when comparing volumes with the previous year. The biggest increases were in West Dunbartonshire (up 27.8 per cent to 161 sales), East Ayrshire (up 22.2 per cent to 193 sales) and Moray (20.5 per cent to 147 sales). Local authorities with large decreases in sales volumes included Inverclyde, Falkirk, Angus and Renfrewshire.

Across Scotland, all property types showed an increase in average price in January 2018 when compared with the same month in the previous year. Detached properties showed the biggest increase, rising by 8.6 per cent to £261,291. The average price of flatted properties showed an increase of 5.6 per cent to £105,590, the smallest increase of all property types.

The average price in January 2018 for a property purchased by a first time buyer was £119,174 – an increase of 6.5 per cent compared to the same month in the previous year. The average price for a property purchased by a former owner occupier was £179,391 – an increase of 8.3 per cent on the previous year.

The average price for a cash sale was £136,482 – an increase of 6.6 per cent on the previous year – while the average price for property purchased with a mortgage was £154,125 – an increase of 7.7 per cent on the previous year.

Notes to editors

1. Registers of Scotland is the government department responsible for compiling and maintaining registers relating to property and other legal documents in Scotland. Registers of Scotland records and safeguards the rights of the individual while providing open access to information on the registers.
2. The UK HPI is currently published on the second or third Tuesday of each month with Northern Ireland figures updated quarterly. From April 2018, publication of these figures will move from Tuesday to Wednesday. The February 2018 UK HPI will be published at 9.30am on 18 April 2018. See the calendar of release dates. Further information on this change is available in this statement.
3. For the full picture and detail, access the UK HPI and the HPI Scotland. As with other indicators in the Housing Market, which typically fluctuate from month to month, it is important not to put too much weight on one month’s set of house price data.
4. A blog post by Rhys Lewis from the Office for National Statistics has been published explaining why there are revisions to UK House Price Index data and what is being done to make provisional estimates more accurate. An accompanying articlehas also been published which focuses on the amendment made to the estimation model when calculating the provisional estimate in the UK HPI and the impact of this change.
5. We have published the Quality Assurance of Administrative Data (QAAD) documents for each of the data sources used in the UK House Price Index.
6. In addition to the enhancements to the UK HPI that were summarised in the anniversary news release, a comparison guide has been produced that compares the source data, index and methods of the different house price index measures that are published in the UK. This guide highlights the strengths and limitations of each measure to aid users in choosing the most appropriate index for their requirements.
7. Registers of Scotland also published our Calendar Year Market Review 2017 earlier this month, and our most recent 10-year property market report in June 2017, detailing trends in the land and property market over the last ten years.
8. For further information, please telephone Jacq Kelly on 0131 528 3738, 07825 388 120 or email communications@ros.gov.uk, or contact us at: Communications, Registers of Scotland, Meadowbank House, 153 London Road, Edinburgh, EH8 7AU.
9. The statistics have been produced in accordance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. The UK House Price Index is calculated by the Office for National Statistics and Land & Property Services Northern Ireland. Find out about the methodology used.
10. Data for the UK House Price Index is provided by HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, Land & Property Services Northern Ireland and the Valuation Office Agency.
11. Separate HPI releases are also published by HM Land Registry and Land & Property Services Northern Ireland, which focus on the figures for England and Wales and for Northern Ireland. The Office for National Statistics also publishes a monthly HPI statistical bulletin with commentary on the whole of the UK.
12. Download the data. Datasets are available as CSV files, or create your own reports using the UK HPI search tool.
13. The new UK HPI was launched in June 2016 initially as an experimental official statistic to allow for users to acclimatise to the format of the new HPI, to evaluate user reaction to the new data, evolve the publication of data further to meet user requirements and to further develop the data sources used in the production. We removed our experimental statistic status from 13th February 2018.Further information about this change in status and the improvements introduced to the UK HPI since its launch can be found in section 1.1 of About the UK House Price Index. The HPI working group will continue to progress with the assessment of the UK House Price Index as a National Statistic.Please note that the Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index, used as a component source in the production of the new UK HPI remains an official statistic.
14. On Thursday 23 November 2017, the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) confirmed the UK HPI will be awarded National Statistics status if 8 requirements are addressed. Further information about the OSR assessment is available in a news release published by our partner HM Land Registry.
15. Registers of Scotland began compiling quarterly statistics on the housing market with the completion of the extension of the Land Register to all counties in Scotland in April 2003. The differences in methodology between our quarterly statistics and the HPI are highlighted here. Charts are also available on our website to allow comparison between the two statistical outputs and to explain the key differences.

Footnotes

1. This publication covers statistics up to January 2018.↵
2. All average prices reported from the UK HPI are geometric means, which will typically be closer to the median than the arithmetic mean.↵
3. Average price estimates for the most recent months are provisional figures and are likely to change when more recent data are incorporated into the index. It should be noted that the provisional annual change for December 2017 has been revised from an increase of 7.7% to 6.0%. Revision policies can be accessed here.↵
4. Due to a period of 2 to 8 weeks between completion and registration of sales, volume figures based on the month of date of entry are presented up to November because December and January figures may change when more recent sales applications data are received.↵
5. The volume of sales in November 2016 was 8,734, and in October 2017 was 8,936 (revised figure).↵
6. Cumulative volumes are based on revised HPI Scotland volumes figures (January 2018).↵
7. The Orkney Islands showed an increase of 23.6 per cent, while Na h-Eileanan Siar showed a decrease of 13.6 per cent. Local authority areas where sales volumes within the 12 months to November 2017 represent less than 1 per cent of the all Scotland sales volume are excluded from the figures used for highlighting purposes due to the volatility of the market in these areas.↵
8. The Shetland Islands and Clackmannanshire showed decreases of 58.7 per cent and 17.6 per cent respectively. Local authority areas where sales volumes within the 12 months to November 2017 represent less than 1 per cent of the all Scotland sales volume are excluded from the figures used for highlighting purposes due to the volatility of the market in these areas.↵