Monthly House Price Index statistics for July 2018 published as National Statistics

Average price of property in Scotland up 3.2 per cent on previous year.

Registers of Scotland is pleased to confirm that the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) designated the UK House Price Index (UK HPI) as National Statistics on 18 September 2018. This indicates that the Index has been independently assessed and meets the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and value as defined in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Ed Humpherson, OSR’s Director General for Regulation, stated in their letter that the “assessment team has been impressed by the commitment shown by the UK HPI Working Group and the collaborative approach taken to introduce a range of improvements in response to the Assessment. This approach has ensured that the UK HPI is produced in a way that maximises its public value and gives users confidence.”

Registers of Scotland Business Development and Information Director Kenny Crawford commented: “We welcome the designation of the UK HPI as National Statistics and the consequent recognition of the worth of this statistical output. This designation is the culmination of many months of hard work by the UK HPI working group, involving extensive user engagement, reviewing and revising the content and presentation of the UK HPI and developing a plan of ongoing engagement and review.”

The latest publication of the monthly UK HPI shows that the average price of a property in Scotland in July 2018 was £152,245 – an increase of 3.2 per cent on July in the previous year and an increase of 1.4 per cent when compared to the previous month. This compares to a UK average of £231,422, which was an increase of 3.1 per cent on July in the previous year and an increase of 1.2 per cent when compared to the previous month. The average price of a property in Scotland has increased each month since March 2016, when compared with the same month of the previous year.

The volume of residential sales in Scotland in May 2018 was 7,993 – a decrease of 6.3 per cent on May 2017. This compares with annual decreases in sales volumes of 16.1 per cent in England and 14.4 per cent in Wales in May 2018, and 13.0 per cent in Northern Ireland in Quarter 2 - 2018. The cumulative volume of sales for Scotland for the calendar year to date – from January 2018 to May 2018 – was 34,711. This is a decrease of 9.2 per cent on the equivalent year to date position in the previous calendar year (2017).

Average price increases were recorded in the vast majority (29) of local authorities in July 2018, when comparing prices with the previous year. The biggest price increases were in West Dunbartonshire and West Lothian, where average prices increased by 12.7 per cent to £109,076 and 10.8 per cent to £160,075 respectively. The decreases were recorded in City of Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire and East Ayrshire, where average prices fell by 4.4 per cent to £159,328, 3.7 per cent to £188,835 and 2.3 per cent to £95,325 respectively.

Increases in sales volumes were recorded in eight local authorities in May 2018, when comparing volumes with the previous year. The biggest increases were in Stirling and Inverclyde, where volumes increased by 24.6 per cent to 157 sales and 7.4 per cent to 101 sales respectively. The biggest decreases were in City of Edinburgh and East Ayrshire, where volumes fell by 21.7 per cent to 881 sales and 19.5 per cent to 173 sales respectively.

Across Scotland, all property types showed an increase in average price in July 2018 when compared with the same month in the previous year. Terraced properties showed the biggest increase, rising by 4.1 per cent to £126,061, while semi-detached properties and flatted properties increased by 3.1 per cent to £156,903 and £111,344 respectively, and detached properties increased by 2.6 per cent to £260,221.

The average price in July 2018 for a property purchased by a first time buyer was £123,859 – an increase of 3.5 per cent compared to the same month in the previous year. The average price for a property purchased by a former owner occupier was £181,149 – an increase of 2.8 per cent on the previous year.

The average price for a cash sale was £140,862 – an increase of 2.9 per cent on the previous year – while the average price for property purchased with a mortgage was £157,509 – an increase of 3.3 per cent on the previous year.

Notes to editors

1. Registers of Scotland is the government department responsible for compiling and maintaining registers relating to property and other legal documents in Scotland. Registers of Scotland records and safeguards the rights of the individual while providing open access to information on the registers.
2. For the full picture and detail, access the UK HPI and the HPI Scotland. As with other indicators in the Housing Market, which typically fluctuate from month to month, it is important not to put too much weight on one month’s set of house price data.
3. The UK HPI was designated as National Statistics by the Office for Statistics Regulation on 18 September 2018. It was initially launched in June 2016 as an experimental Official Statistic, and became Official Statistics from 13th February 2018 when we removed our experimental statistic status. Please note that the Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index, used as a component source in the production of the UK HPI, remains an Official Statistic.
4. The UK HPI is published on the second or third Wednesday of each month with Northern Ireland figures updated quarterly. Previously these figures were published on the second or third Tuesday of each month with Northern Ireland figures updated quarterly. See the calendar of release dates. Further information on this change is available in this statement.
5. A blog post by Rhys Lewis from the Office for National Statistics has been published explaining why there are revisions to UK House Price Index data and what is being done to make provisional estimates more accurate. An accompanying article has also been published which focuses on the amendment made to the estimation model when calculating the provisional estimate in the UK HPI and the impact of this change.
6. We have published the Quality Assurance of Administrative Data (QAAD) documents for each of the data sources used in the UK House Price Index.
7. In addition to the enhancements to the UK HPI that were summarised in the anniversary news release, a comparison guide has been produced that compares the source data, index and methods of the different house price index measures that are published in the UK. This guide highlights the strengths and limitations of each measure to aid users in choosing the most appropriate index for their requirements.
8. The statistics have been produced in accordance with the Code of Practice for Statistics. The UK House Price Index is calculated by the Office for National Statistics and Land & Property Services Northern Ireland. Find out about the methodology used.
9. Data for the UK House Price Index is provided by HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, Land & Property Services Northern Ireland and the Valuation Office Agency.
10. Separate HPI releases are also published by HM Land Registry and Land & Property Services Northern Ireland, which focus on the figures for England and Wales and for Northern Ireland. The Office for National Statistics also publishes a monthly HPI statistical bulletin with commentary on the whole of the UK.
11. Download the data. Datasets are available as CSV files, or create your own reports using the UK HPI search tool.
12. Registers of Scotland published our Property Market Report 2007-08 to 2017-18 in June 2018, detailing trends in the land and property market over the reporting period. Our most recent Calendar Year Market Review 2018 was published in March 2018.
13. For further information, please telephone Jacq Kelly on 0131 528 3738, 07825 388 120 or email communications@ros.gov.uk, or contact us at: Communications, Registers of Scotland, Meadowbank House, 153 London Road, Edinburgh, EH8 7AU.
14. Registers of Scotland began compiling quarterly statistics on the housing market with the completion of the extension of the Land Register to all counties in Scotland in April 2003. The differences in methodology between our quarterly statistics and the HPI are highlighted here. Charts are also available on our website to allow comparison between the two statistical outputs and to explain the key differences.

Footnotes

1. This publication covers statistics up to July 2018.
2. All average prices reported from the UK HPI are geometric means, which will typically be closer to the median than the arithmetic mean.
3. Average price estimates for the most recent months are provisional figures and are likely to change when more recent data are incorporated into the index. Revision policies can be accessed here.
4. Due to there being a period of 2 to 8 weeks between completion and registration of sales, volume figures based on the month of date of entry are presented up to May because June and July figures may change when more recent sales applications data are received.
5. The volume of sales in May 2017 was 8,529.
6. Cumulative volumes are based on revised HPI Scotland volumes figures (May 2018).
7. Na h-Eileanan Siar and Clackmannanshire showed increases of 40.7 per cent and 26.2 per cent respectively, while the Orkney Islands and the Shetland Islands showed decreases of 30.8 per cent and 25.9 per cent respectively. Local authority areas where sales volumes within the 12 months to May 2018 represent less than 1 per cent of the all Scotland sales volume are excluded from the figures used for highlighting purposes due to the volatility of the market in these areas.